The economy of the province of Tarragona will recover from the impact of the Covid from next spring

The economy of the province of Tarragona will not recover from the impact of the pandemic until after the first quarter of next year. Thus, Josep Oliver, Emeritus Professor of Applied Economics at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) and director of the BBVA 2022 Regional Economic Yearbook has pointed out.

The study, presented this Monday, highlights that Camp de Tarragona led the economic recovery in Catalonia last year with an increase of 7.4% in Gross Value Added (VAB). The improvement is due to the "bonuses" results of the tertiary and manufacturing sectors, after the "strong" fall suffered in 2020. However, the records are still far from returning to the pre-pandemic figures. Terres de l'Ebre also improved with a 5.1% increase in GVA.

According to Oliver, the growth of this fourth quarter with respect to the third could be "zero" and this "slowdown" could be extended during the first months of next year. "If the Covid does not rebound and the war in Ukraine does not blow it up again, we would have to enter a phase of total reabsorption of the losses that remain pending overcoming the shock of the pandemic starting in the spring," said the expert. . In the presentation of the BBVA Regional Economic Yearbook 2022Oliver explained that the Tarragona and Girona regions were the ones that suffered the most significant falls in the midst of the pandemic, but they are also the ones that are leading the economic recovery.

In fact, the growth of Camp de Tarragona in 2021 has been 7.4%, the highest in Catalonia (6.3%), while Terres de l'Ebre has registered 5.1%, figure slightly below the Catalan average. Specific, The economic report indicates that the private services of the tertiary sector, such as shops, hotels, restaurants, transport, artistic and recreational activities, among others, are those that have led to the recovery.n, with an 11% improvement in GVA. These sectors suffered a fall of 27.4% two years ago.

By way of example, Oliver stressed that the Costa Daurada achieved 4.2 million overnight stays and that some 158,000 passengers passed through the Reus airport. However, the recovery of these areas is still far from the figures of 2019, when 9.8 million overnight stays and one million travelers were achieved.

The study also indicates the recovery of industrial activity by 7.1%, and manufacturing by 10.2%. In this sense, the director has highlighted the growth of the food and chemical industries.

«Chemistry has a very relevant weight, especially in Tarragonès, and its growth has been one of the important ones in the country; chemistry has recovered the leading role it has in the industrial sector, having said this, it must be remembered that the dominant sectors in our economy continue to be services », he added. In addition, he has also remarked that exports from the Tarragona demarcation have grown by 27% in 2021, registering a "memory" figure of 9,900 million euros.

The construction sector also registers almost a 2% increasedespite the fact that the study points out that it is a "totally insufficient" recovery to compensate for the "strong loss" -of 11.4%- in 2020. As for the primary, the advance is 10.2 %. By areas, agriculture grew by 4.1%, livestock by 18.7% and fishing by 8.9%. In contrast, the energy sector fell by 7.5%.

In Terres de l'Ebre, 5.1% increase

In the Ebrense regions, the GVA increased by 5.1%, according to the yearbook. The tertiary sector is the one that increases the most with 8.6%, while industry and construction stands at 1.7%. In the case of services it is 8.6%, standing above the Catalan average, and reflecting the "intense rise" of 11.1%. In fact, the positive dynamics of these services is due to the recovery of hotel overnight stays which, after the "strong contraction" - from 624,000 in 2019 to 330 thousand in 2020 - grew by 61%, to 532,000 overnight stays.

Regarding the improvement in industrial GVA, energy, water and recycling production, which, with a weight of 71% of the GVA of the sector, contracted by 2.5%, while manufacturing grew strongly. The report also highlights the improvement in agriculture of 6.2% and the drop in livestock, estimated at 2.5%.

Return to pre-pandemic figures

The director of the study has stated that the economy of the Camp de Tarragona has recovered "a lot" but that it still has eight points left to achieve the added value levels of before the pandemic. "It is a very strong growth and we will need the months of 2023 to say that the shock of the covid has been reabsorbed," he reiterated. In the case of the Ebrense lands, Oliver has detailed that the fall was minor, therefore, the recovery has been "less intense." «The global balance is slightly more positive, about 5% is missing. In the year 2021, there is no vegueria that has overcome the crisis, “the expert has closed.